WTC 2023/25 Final: India’s qualification scenario explained
India lost the fourth test match of BGT against Australia, narrowing its path to the WTC final of the 2023-25 cycle. Now India is placed in the third position, below South Africa(already qualified) and Australia, with only a single match left. The final game will be played tomorrow (Jan 3, 2025) in Sydney against Australia. 
Three possibilities are there-
- If India wins the final game then the series will end in a 2-2 draw and India wins percentage will be 55.26. After this India will left with no game and Australia will still have 2 matches left to be played against Sri Lanka. Sri Lanka will need to win the series at least by 1-0 to make India qualify.
- If India loses the last game then Australia’s win percentage will reach 57.01 and they will qualify for the final making India out.
- If the draw will be there then if Sri Lanka whitewash Australia then they will reach the final or in any other case Australia will qualify.
Note-
BGT ends 2-2 and Australia draws Sri Lanka
In this scenario, the three teams’ PCT will be as follows:
India 55.26%, Australia 55.26%, Sri Lanka 43.58%
Yes, in the very unlikely scenario that each of the two Australia – Sri Lanka games ends in a draw, India and Australia will both have the same PCT. However, should this happen, India will progress to the final.
Why? According to the ICC Playing Conditions for the 2023-25 WTC, if two or more teams have an identical Points Percentage at the end of the group stage, they will be ordered by the higher number of series wins. This is according to clause 16.12.2.
Should both the BGT and SL-AUS end in a draw, then India will have three series wins (ENG (H), BAN (H), and WI (A)) as compared to Australia’s two (PAK (H) and NZ (A)).